Following a botched mercenary uprising that was intended to topple the top brass, Russia’s most senior generals have disappeared from public view. President Vladimir Putin is attempting to regain his power, and there have been unverified rumours of at least one arrest.
Russia’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, has not made an appearance in public or on official television since the attempted mutiny on Saturday when mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin demanded Gerasimov’s surrender. Since June 9, he has also not been referenced in a news statement from the military ministry.
One of Russia’s three “nuclear briefcases,” according to some Western military analysts, is held by Gerasimov, 67, the commander of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
General Sergei Surovikin, the deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine and the man the Russian media dubbed “General Armageddon” for his strong strategies in the Syrian crisis, is also invisible.
According to a New York Times article based on a US intelligence briefing, he was aware of the rebellion in advance, and Russian officials were investigating him to see if he was involved.
On Wednesday, the Kremlin downplayed the news, claiming that there had been and would continue to be much rumour and conjecture.
Surovikin was detained, according to the military blogger and the Russian-language edition of the Moscow Times, while other military journalists with significant followings in Russia claimed he and other senior commanders were being questioned about their potential involvement in the rebellion.
Reuters could not determine whether Surovikin had been arrested.
Rybar, an influential channel on the Telegram messaging application run by a former Russian defence ministry press officer, said a purge was underway.
He said the authorities were trying to weed out military personnel deemed to have shown “a lack of decisiveness” in putting down the mutiny amid some reports that parts of the armed forces appear to have done little to stop Wagner fighters in the initial stage of the rebellion.
“The armed insurgency by the Wagner private military company has become a pretext for a massive purge in the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces,” said Rybar.
Such a move, if confirmed, could alter the way Russia wages its war in Ukraine — which it calls a “special military operation” — and cause turmoil in the ranks at a time when Moscow is trying to stymie a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
It could also cement or elevate the positions of other senior military and security figures regarded as loyal.
There was no official comment on what was going on from the defence ministry.
Winners and losers
Some Russian and Western military and political analysts believe Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, a veteran Putin ally who Prigozhin wanted to bring down with Gerasimov because of his alleged incompetence, may actually now be safer in his job.
“I think he (Prigozhin) actually expected something would be done about Shoigu and Gerasimov, that Putin would rule in his favour,” Michael Kofman, a Russian military specialist at the Carnegie Endowment think tank, wrote on Twitter.
“Instead, his mutiny may have ensured their continued tenure, despite being universally recognised as incompetent, and widely detested in the Russian Federation’s armed forces.”
Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard who used to be Putin’s bodyguard, appears to be another beneficiary after appearing in public to say his men were ready to “stand to the death” to defend Moscow from Wagner.
He has spoken of the possibility of getting heavy weaponry and tanks for his forces in the wake of the mutiny.
Gerasimov was conspicuous by his absence when Putin on Tuesday thanked the army for averting a civil war, unlike Shoigu who has made several public appearances since.
Surovikin, Gerasimov’s deputy, was last seen on Saturday when he appeared in a video appealing to Prigozhin to halt his mutiny. He looked exhausted and it was unclear if he was speaking under duress.
There were unconfirmed Russian media and blogger reports on Wednesday evening that Surovikin was being held in Moscow’s Lefortovo detention facility after being arrested.
Alexei Venediktov, a well-connected journalist, said – without citing his sources – that Surovikin had not been in touch with his family since Saturday and that his bodyguards had gone silent too.
Prigozhin, who had spent months vilifying Shoigu and Gerasimov for their alleged incompetence in the Ukraine war, had frequently praised Surovikin who is widely respected in the army for his experience in Chechnya and Syria.
Surovikin, who did a stint as overall commander of the Ukraine war before Gerasimov was appointed to take over, is regarded by Western military analysts and by parts of the Ukrainian military as an effective operator.
He had been spoken of by Russian war correspondents as a potential future defence minister.
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