In recent weeks, Russia has been lobbing dozens of missiles at Ukraine in the war that has now entered Day 266. However, on Tuesday evening, a nightmarish scenario emerged when Poland reported that a Russian-made missile struck Przewodow, along the border with Ukraine, killing two people.
The incident has very obvious high stakes as it could lead to an escalation of events — a World War III-type of scenario: this is the first time that the territory of a NATO country has been struck during the near nine month Ukraine war.
The circumstances surrounding the incident remain unclear. It is not known who fired the missile, or where it was fired from, though the Polish foreign ministry has described it as “Russian-made.”
Witnesses to the blast described hearing a terrifying “whoosh” as the projectile flew over the town and the force of the explosion shook nearby windows.
Video taken by a resident show a large smoke plume in the centre of the village.
At the site of the explosion, local media showed an image of a crater and upturned farm vehicle.
📹 A video from the Polish village Przewodow reportedly struck by Russia
Video: Tsaplienko TG pic.twitter.com/jLu9AwipNU
— KyivPost (@KyivPost) November 15, 2022
President Andrzej Duda told reporters that it was “most probably” Russian-made, but that its origins were still being verified, the Associated Press reported. “We are acting with calm. This is a difficult situation,” Duda said. He said Poland was raising its level of military preparedness.
Following the attack, investigations have begun, with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg saying, “I offered my condolences for the loss of life. NATO is monitoring the situation and Allies are closely consulting. Important that all facts are established.”
US President Joe Biden, who is in Bali for the G20 summit, said that it was “unlikely” that the missile was fired from Russia, but pledged support for Poland’s investigation. “There is preliminary information that contests that,” Biden told reporters when asked if the missile had been fired from Russia. “It is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we’ll see.”
The attack has also led to talks of NATO’s Article 4 and 5 surfacing, with the official handle of the Polish president tweeting a message that reads: “President @AndrzejDuda: I informed @jensstoltenberg, @POTUS, @RishiSunak and @OlafScholz that our ambassador will participate in the North Atlantic Council and that it is highly probable that he will request the activation of Article 4, i.e. allied consultations.”
Prezydent @AndrzejDuda: Poinformowałem @jensstoltenberg, @POTUS, @RishiSunak i @OlafScholz, że nasz ambasador będzie uczestniczył w Radzie Północnoatlantyckiej i że jest wysoce prawdopodobne, że wystąpi z wnioskiem o uruchomienie art.4., czyli konsultacji sojuszniczych
— Kancelaria Prezydenta (@prezydentpl) November 15, 2022
So, what is NATO’s Article 4 and 5 state and why are talks about it emerging after the attack?
What does NATO Article 4 say?
Poland is part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) also called the North Atlantic Alliance. It was formed as a political and military alliance in the context of providing a counterweight in Europe to the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Over the years, several countries have joined the organisation, including Turkey, Lithuania and Estonia, and most recently, North Macedonia in 2020.
Of the articles contained within the treaty, Articles 4 and 5 are those most commonly cited.
Also read: Ukraine crisis: What might happen if the war spreads to a NATO country
As per the NATO charter, Article 4 says that member states “will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security” of another member is threatened.
It establishes a consultation mechanism among members, “to exchange views and information, and discuss issues prior to reaching agreement and taking action,” according to an explanation on the NATO website. “It also gives NATO an active role in preventive diplomacy by providing the means to help avoid military conflict.”
It is important to note here that Article 4 does not always have to lead to NATO entering a conflict. In fact, it has been invoked seven times since 1949 when NATO was established. As recently as February, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Romania and Slovakia invoked it to hold meetings following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Prior to that, it had been invoked in 2015 by Turkey after at least 30 people were killed in a suicide bombing near its border with Syria. Turkey had then said that it wanted to inform the alliance of the measures it was taking in response to the attack.
What’s NATO’s Article 5?
This is where fears of an escalation could emerge. Article 5 of the NATO charter, perhaps the most important part of the treaty, deals with the principle of collective defence. It states that the parties to the NATO treaty “agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.”
It further says that each member of NATO must take “such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.” It also authorises the alliance to launch an armed response, but the wording is broad and leaves room for other types of action.
As of today, Article 5 has been raised only once—after the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America, and NATO forces went into Afghanistan in response.
So, will Poland invoke Article 5 now?
Poland could invoke Article 5, but the chances of that happening are slim.
An investigation will be carried out to ascertain the source of the attack and the intent of the attack.
In the interim, world leaders are seeking to ease tensions in the aftermath of the explosion, which comes amid continued Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
What is US’ responsibility now?
If Poland does invoke Article 5 of the NATO charter, the US would be called upon to help defend the European nation.
However, the rule is written in such a way that each ally country can decide for itself the best course of action to take. This means that the US could choose not to react to the missile attack.
However, US President Joe Biden and his administration have reiterated the US’ commitment to Article 5 with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying, “If there is any aggression anywhere, on NATO territory on NATO countries, we the United States, all of our allies and partners will take action to defend every inch of NATO territory. It’s as clear and direct as that.”
Even President Biden had said the United States holds Article 5 as a sacred obligation and “we will do right by that commitment.”
With inputs from agencies
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