Over the last few weeks, New Delhi has witnessed the red carpet being rolled out for Heads of States and high-flying dignitaries from across the Western world. The recently concluded Raisina Dialogues also included the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. As the conflict in Europe remains ongoing, India's insistence on the well-being of its citizenry has evoked a wave of responses. Many of these have refused to recognise India's position being driven by her own national interests.
As India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) worked overtime to secure safe passage for Indian citizens stuck in the conflict zone, amidst reports of racism and open hostility by Ukrainian forces, the nation was left to find a way to rescue almost 20,000 citizens by itself. Despite deft diplomatic manoeuvring, it resulted in the loss of life of a young student. India was hounded by a large section of the Western commentariat to condemn a strategic partner with great interdependencies through this time. This remained in sharp contrast to the US's complete ignorance of China's stance on the matter, even lowering tariffs for $300 billion worth of imports from China. For context, that is only slightly less than the existing trade deficit the US runs with China at this time. The US shows no intention of closing that gap with a belligerent autocracy in Asia it does not share borders with.
Since the first UN resolution on Russia was passed during the conflict, India has seen visits by top US diplomats, and senators and meetings between President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Each of these meetings has led to increasingly confusing signalling from the US, which has attempted a chaotic version of the good-cop, bad-cop technique, something that is not a staple of successful foreign policy. Deputy NSA Daleep Singh, being Biden's in-charge for sanctions, has now taken an extended “leave of absence”, but his statement in India about “consequences” for active circumvention of US sanctions did not go down too well with his host nation. Jen Psaki's attempt to play it down as a “constructive conversation” was belied by Singh's repetition of the same statement to press when asked about the warning.
The White House's own messaging has oscillated between India having a “shaky position” on the conflict, as stated by President Biden, and being “the most important relationship the United States has in the world”. The US continues to ignore manufacturing practices that violate human rights as long as they're in China and make for cheap imports. This will be more dangerous as its soft stance on the autocracy preys on ongoing American and European manufacturing deficiencies.
Undersecretary Victoria Nuland's visit to New Delhi also saw her leave with no real outcome. Her meeting with “thought leaders” with clear biases against the present Indian government could be understood as a political ploy unlikely to be seen as friendly. When executed by Nuland whose role in the 2014 Orange Revolution in Ukraine has been called into question, it does not pass off as friendly. Donald Lu's conciliatory statements in the light of pressure tactics have carried little weight. US Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, famed for her anti-Indian stance, was also recently seen meeting with the deposed Prime Minister of India’s hostile neighbour, Pakistan. Despite it being in a personal capacity, the move has an impact on bilateral understanding between the two countries.
The Indian population with a per capita GDP of less than $2,000 is wracked by the global pandemic. While heavily dependent on the US for its energy requirements, India is struggling to revive its markets. As the EU and the US continue their own dependencies on Russia, the signalling with regard to India has continued unabated. This is despite India's statements seeking a diplomatic solution, sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and calling for a neutral investigation into the Bucha massacres. Moreover, Western analysts picking up on these signals have also continued the rhetoric with a complete lack of interest in Chinese aggression even as their activities in the Solomon Islands bring their hostility to the fore again.
According to a recently released poll by the Pew Research Center, unfavourable views against China are at an all-time high among US citizens. Requiring other countries to be on the same page as “democracies in a rules-based order” is something the US has asked of other countries, while hastily cancelling Nancy Pelosi's visit to democratic Taiwan on the pretext of her contracting Covid-19. The vacillations regarding adherence to democratic principles have started to sound vaguely like a call for subservience to a Caliphate.
The panel on Quad during the Raisina Dialogues was also aptly titled Quadrophenia, a reference to a song, but also to the schizophrenia that is clearly visible among its partners. It has required External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar's calling out of the double standards on multiple occasions to have some of the commenting parties to respond with consideration of India's stand, but the American commitment to the Quad seems the shakier position at this time.
As Sri Lanka falls into a severe economic crisis and Maldives goes through a China-backed “India Out” campaign, Nepal's political flux and unsteady loyalties should put India's neighbourhood in the spotlight. This is at a time when India-China relations remain tense with border standoffs, and China stands to gain with the markets opened by the EU and the US, and increasing trade deficits. The toughest that the US has seemed to be on China is through inconsistent warnings, and consistently China-positive actions.
India is one of the few nations that is not actively seeking to prod the boundaries of existing arrangements as the Western-led order is said to be declining. Instead, it has consistently showcased solidarity even as speculations remain rife about disunity and disorder in the West.
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Jaishankar and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken have visited together at the DC-based Howard University to discuss historic India-US ties. This occurred even as Blinken fell back on the tired trope of “rise in human rights abuses”, a topic where no facts or figures have mattered. While Dr Jaishankar was forced to respond in kind to the media, this has so far not gotten in the way of ties between other Quad partners of India. They continue to grow, albeit cautiously, with Japan and Australian prime ministers and delegates meeting their Indian counterparts to discuss initiatives, investments and trade. Australia's trade pact provides a start towards a more open Indo-Pacific, with options for containing China's economic might.
The rules for “democracy” are suddenly agile, malleable even, through the length of this discourse. They seem to have overlapped with allegiance to the West in their conflict-related interests almost exclusively. The implications of such haranguing must also be examined at a time when India stands to provide the Western world with options. The country has moved determinedly towards the US, a purported cultural cousin due to shared values, and a large free market with a democratic form of government. The end result of ignoring Indian interests for a pat on the head may make Indian intelligentsia wary of a West-oriented order, and affect decision making.
As the Indian leadership works towards drawing in investments and creating a multilateral order on an upward trajectory, American participation in the growth story will be beneficial to the stability of the Indo-Pacific. As the US engages with other democracies to discuss the fragile security in Taiwan, it also halts its arms sales to the country, something that likely placates a revanchist China.
The “do as I say, not as I do” rhetoric of the US is coming at the cost of a myopic ignorance of China's place in the world order, and a true acknowledgement of what that would mean for the US and the democratic order it claims to stand for. The way forward is an interest-based dialogue that offers strategy a chance over rhetoric, in recognition of India’s requirements, while being truly committed to a secure Indo-Pacific.
The author is a Masters in Biotechnology from the University of Bath, an MBA, a columnist, and a podcaster. Views expressed are personal.
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