Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan held a massive rally in Islamabad on Sunday that attracted tens and thousands of people. In a marathon speech that lasted two hours, Khan said that there was a “foreign conspiracy” to replace him because of his refusal to have the country’s foreign policy influenced by forces abroad.
“Attempts are being made to influence our foreign policy from abroad. We have been aware of this conspiracy for months,” said Khan. “Attempts are being made through foreign money to change the government in Pakistan. Our people are being used. Mostly inadvertently, but some people are using money against us.”
The answer to "Yeh kia ho raha hai" by our General Secretary @Asad_Umar
Views from the stage after PM Imran Khan talks about #DecadeofDams and then vindication of Asad Umar's statements to media & social media over the last 10 days. #IamImranKhan pic.twitter.com/roi2b7eUFP
— PTI (@PTIofficial) March 28, 2022
Khan faces a no-confidence vote in parliament and despite Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) show of strength at Sunday’s rally, things don’t look good for prime minister. We take a look at the ongoing political crisis in the neighbouring country?
No-trust motion
Khan, a former cricketing hero, is facing the biggest political crisis of his career, as the opposition is preparing to move a no-confidence motion against him in the Pakistan parliament.
The National Assembly (NA) is set to begin on Monday with the oppostion’s top agenda being the no-confidence resolution. However, voting against the motion could be further delayed and is likely to be held early next month, according to Pakistan-based news agency Dawn.
Pakistan interior minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed told the media on Sunday that the voting on the no-trust motion is likely to take place on April 4 if the NA speaker allows it to be tabled on Monday.
Under the rules, from the day the resolution is moved, it “shall not be voted upon before the expiry of three days, or later than seven days”, reports Dawn.
The Pakistan opposition has slammed Speaker Asad Qaiser for acting in a partial manner toward Khan’s government. On 25 March, the speaker adjourned the motion, following which the opposition accused him of buying time for Khan to gather support for his government.
Who is behind the no-confidence motion?
Khan faces the no-confidence vote by a united opposition – the Pakistan Muslim League, Nawaz (PMLN) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).
Once arch rivals, the two biggest opposition parties in the country have now joined hands to topple the government. PMLN is led by Nawaz Sharif, who has been prime minister three times, and PPP is led by former president Asif Ali Zardari and his son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.
Other smaller opposition parties have rallied against Khan.
Why is there so much anger against Imran Khan?
Khan, riding on his popularity, came to power in 2018 with a small majority in the NA. Unlike today, the opposition was then divided with corruption cases registered against its senior-most leaders.
Pakistan’s economy was already facing a crisis which Khan has been unable to resolve. He has been accused of mismanaging the economy and the country’s foreign policy.
Since 2018, Khan has appointed four finance minister and close to a dozen finance secretaries. He also changed his tax chief often.
After being hesitant to seek a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), he reached out to the body in 2019. However, the loan was suspended because Pakistan did not meet IMF’s conditions, reports news agency Bloomberg.
The plan was revived last year after Khan’s administration agreed to tougher conditions, including raising oil prices and electricity tariffs. But a few months later, Khan cut domestic fuel costs and power rates to soothe public anger over rising living costs, measures seen as putting the IMF program in jeopardy, the report says.
Now Pakistan is negotiating with the IMF to release a desperately needed next tranche of a $6 billion bailout package.
What’s the Pakistan military’s stance?
When Khan came to power, he had complete support of the military. In fact, reports suggest that with the help of the armed forces, Khan survived previous attempts of ouster. But the situation is different now.
As pressure grows on Khan, Pakistan’s powerful military is said to have withdrawn support to the government. He has few backers in the army.
In October 2021, Inter-Services Intelligence chief General Faiz Hameed, who was said to be close to Khan, was removed and appointed as the Peshwar Corps Commander, a post less important.
This change is likely to have caused jitters to Khan. Author and journalist Adrian Levy had told India Today last October, “I fear for Imran Khan slightly because the outgoing ISI chief had an understanding with Imran Khan, and by moving him, it will weaken the position of Imran Khan in relation to the military.”
Does Imran Khan have support within his government?
There has been a churn within the government in recent days. Ahead of the crucial no-confidence vote, Khan’s cabinet minister resigned. Shahzain Bugti, a cabinet member belonging to PTI ally Jamoori Watan Party quit on Sunday. He served as special assistant to prime minister on harmony and reconciliation in Balochistan. Bugti has joined the Pakistan Democratic Movement, a political front opposing the Khan regime.
More resignations are likely within Khan’s cabinet.
What do the numbers say?
The Pakistan opposition needs a simple majority to topped Khan. The opposition parties hold 163 seats in the 342-member lower house, nine short of the majority vote.
Zardari and Sharif are likely to woo Khan’s allies to get to that number.
After Bugti’s decision to quit the ruling coalition, its number has now reduced to 178.
The PML-Q, the Balochistan Awami Party and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan — the three major government allies have 17 members of National Assembly. They have yet to decide which side they are on. These parties are still negotiating with both the government and opposition parties, reports Dawn.
What next?
Pakistan Opposition Leader of the NA Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif will move the no-confidence motion on Monday afternoon. However, if the speaker causes further delays, opposition parties have decided to hold protests both inside and outside the NA.
Khan is losing support quickly and it is unlikely that he will survive the no-confidence vote.
With inputs from agencies
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